Houston: The 经济概览 is a free monthly publication, which offers the latest data along with expert commentary on the Houston region’s economy. 以下是该报告的节选.
Before answering either question, one must first define the industry. Oil and gas has three sectors: 上游, midstream, and downstream. Upstream includes exploration, production, and oilfield services. Midstream focuses on the processing, transportation, and storage of crude and natural gas. Downstream involves the refining and processing of oil and natural gas into fuels, 化学物质, 和塑料. All three sectors are well-represented in Houston.
Each sector responds differently to changes in price. Exploration companies ramp up drilling as crude prices rise and ratchet it down as prices fall. Pipeline profits are tied to the volume of products moving through their systems. 价格是次要问题. Refiners prefer low oil prices because they translate into cheaper feedstocks and wider profit margins. Domestic chemical producers prefer low natural gas prices. Their primary feedstocks are natural gas liquids (NGLs), like ethane and propane. Overseas, the primary feedstock is naphtha, which is derived from crude. As oil prices rise and natural gas prices stay flat, U.S. chemical producers have a cost advantage over their foreign competitors. All three sectors are currently dealing with low commodity prices, 多余的库存, 钻井数量减少, 政府许可障碍, and weak overall demand due to the pandemic.
BEA no longer publishes estimates of 化学物质, refining, and pipelines contributions to Houston GDP. The last year for which the data was available (’14), 上游, midstream and downstream accounted for 26.8%. Factor in oilfield equipment and fabricated metal products manufacturing and energy’s share of Houston GDP jumped to 30 percent.
然而，自那以后发生了很多事情. 油价暴跌, 上游就业大幅下降, 运营商增加了30家,000 miles of pipelines to their systems, and chemical companies have invested over $60 billion in new plants and facilities. As a result, previous estimates of energy’s contribution to GDP are no longer valid.
Assuming that 化学物质 and refined products account for over 90 percent of nondurables manufacturing, the Partnership estimates that downstream energy contributed about $52.1000亿，或者10亿.18%的GDP. That’s two and half times 上游’s share, which BEA estimates at $20.50亿，或者4亿.占GDP的3%. 把上游和下游加起来, 假设管道, 设备制造, engineering and a handful of other sectors contributed another $20 billion, and energy likely accounted for around 25 percent of GDP in ’18. 这比2014年的30%有所下降.
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